But, everyone does not look at challenges the same way. Some people crack and break at the first sign of stress or a problem.

Others are able to take it in their stride and bounce back over time. They are the resilient ones.

There is a third category that is affected by the problem but emerges much stronger than ever before after the challenge. They are the Anti-fragile ones who bounce back and come out stronger after the stress.

I have brought this up in connection with the terrorist attack in Pahalgam and the reprisal from India. Our response and what has happened afterwards seems to indicate that Bharat has got stronger overall after the military response. We will examine how, as we go along.

Terrorist attack and the response -

The terrorist attack of April 22nd was dastardly and a deliberate attempt to foment trouble by terrorists from Pakistan & Kashmir. By singling out non-muslims and slaying them, they were reinforcing the Pakistani thought that Muslims cannot co-exist with others ( again articulated by Asim Munir a few days before the attack ).

The attack on innocent tourists was also aimed at derailing the normalization which was happening in Kashmir. It will take quite sometime now for tourism to come back to normal, especially since there seemed to be complicity of the locals with the terrorists, which is bound to scare away tourists.

There was understandable anger in India and people were looking for the government to act decisively and avenge the deaths of 26 innocent people.

The offensive -

The government and Indian defence forces took their time. On 7th May Operation Sindoor was launched and nine terror camps were targeted and destroyed. Pakistan was not able to stop any of the missiles/ drones that targeted these facilities.

Pakistan started intense firing at the border and also launched a barrage of over 500 drones and some missiles, targeting military and even some civilian targets like Golden Temple, Vaishnodevi and New Delhi.

India was able to engage and destroy all incoming threats but was enraged at this provocation and launched the next phase of Operation Sindoor. This time military installations including runways, hangers, radars, ammunition dumps etc. were targeted. A total of 11+ bases were bombed with minor to medium level damage. Again, Pakis were not able to intercept any of the projectiles, with their Chinese missile defence equipment.

It is after that Pakistan realized how vulnerable they were and wanted a ceasefire. India was fine with halting the military operation but reserved the right to respond if the need arose.

Strategy & tactics -

Pakistan was expecting a ground invasion or a Balakot kind of attack. But India this time did precision strikes without crossing the border using standoff weapons. In fact, in the first strike against terror targets, the Airforce did not even use electronic suppression measures which could have been taken as an adverse military move.

The strategy was to not escalate and at the same time take punitive action against terror camps inside Pakistan. Only when Pakistan retaliated with a drone swarm and fired missiles at civilian and military targets did India engage in Suppression of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD) and went and bombed military targets. Even here, India showed restraint and destroyed runways, communication infrastructure and aircraft hangers to degrade their ability to launch further military attacks against India.

This showed Pakistan that India has a decisive edge over Pakistan and can destroy targets if it chose to but was exercising restraint so as to not move the conflict up on the escalation ladder.

This strategy clearly called off the Nuclear weapon bluster of Pakis and placed before them a new engagement doctrine against terrorist attacks.

Information war -

While India comfortably stamped its authority in the military domain, Pakistan was creating an alternate reality that showed it was winning the war and has been able to impose damages to India?s air assets. Pakistan?s dense plasma cloud of misinformation and propaganda was quite effective indeed.

India was slow to counteract this propaganda which was joined in by China and Turkey. Since there was an information vacuum from India?s side, this propaganda was amplified by world media which portrayed India in poor light.

India caught up only after 4-5 days and started showing proof of hits on Pakistani sites and assets. Pakistan was not able to show any proof and depended on old images taken out of context, good old fakery, doctored videos etc.

The narrative turned when military analysts & media houses worldwide started putting out reports, started talking about the outstanding Indian operation and the superiority it was able to establish in the war domain in this conflict. The tide started turning in India?s favour.

Pakistan still claimed that it has downed 3 Rafales, 1 Su 30 and another air asset. It may well be that Pakis have downed Lakshya and Banshee drones which are used for target practice, that can mimic the electronic signatures of various aircraft including Rafales and Su-30!

India has not confirmed or denied till date if it has lost any planes ? but that is besides the point as in a military conflict the objectives and end outcomes are of paramount importance as long as the damage suffered is minimal. India has clearly confirmed that all pilots are safe, which is what is really important.

Weapons that shone bright -

The Indian weapons covered themselves in glory in this conflict. Brahmos was a stellar performer which struck with pin-point precision. It delivered when it mattered!

Akash Air defence systems were able to take care of the barrage of missiles and drones along with it?s other siblings like MRSAM, LRSAM, QRSAM, VSHORADS, S-400 along with some upgraded legacy systems, showcasing the power of multilayered defence system that India now has. ISRO played a part as well with its satellite imagery and NAVIC.

Rafales, SU 30 MKI and the stand-off weapons like Scalp, Crystal maze, Rampage, SPICE 2000, Brahmos etc. have also been used to great effect. Pinaka multibarrel rocket launchers, Dhanush & ATAGS artillery guns and even Tejas shone bright in this conflict.

Akashteer, an AI powered Air Defence Control and Reporting System was a well-kept secret of the Indian armed forces that played a stellar role in linking up the various systems and subsystems, including data from satellites, AWACS etc. and all military assets and

autonomously targeting the incoming threats, allowing it to react instantaneously. It was so successful that very few drones and missiles were able to get through.

In the brief period of conflict, the disparate weapon systems from various countries like Israel, Russia, France etc. as well as our own weapon systems have been able to work as one integrated system and have proven their worth in the battlefield. Especially, the air defence system has performed exceptionally and now this is favourably compared to iron dome of Israel, which by itself is a very capable missile defence system.

The collateral benefit to India would now be an increased number of orders for our indigenous systems like Brahmos, Pinaka, Akash, Akashteer etc.

An uneasy calm -

Currently, there is a lull in the proceedings. Whether this will remain like this is anybody?s guess. Pakistan is in disarray due to the internal turmoil & economic collapse. Hence, further misadventures by Pakis, to divert attention of people from pressing national problems towards a common enemy, can be anticipated.

China is fast tracking 5th generation aircraft deliveries and other weapons for Pak to augment their capabilities. Pak does not have an option ? it does not have the money to pay for weapons; hence Chinese weapons are the only refuge. It has not worked well and have proved quite ineffective; but Pak has no option.

India is also making some emergency procurements of Rs.40,000 crores to augment weapon systems like drones, anti-drones, ammunition, long range missiles etc.

All these seem to indicate that this may just be an interlude in the conflict.

Economics, geopolitics and the road ahead -

Trump has turned the world on its head since he got elected in January. He thinks of everything in terms of trade ? even the Indo-Pak conflict looked like an unwanted diversion to him.

He claims to have said to India and Pakistan, Let us do some trade, which according to him resulted in the ceasefire! Sometimes one wonders whether he is for real!

While there is uncertainty the world over, US itself is staring at tariff induced high inflation, economic descent, high bond yields due to a softening dollar, more borrowings for tax cuts etc.. The industry in the US is not able to understand the direction Trump is taking America and is hence even thinking of moving out of the US ( like in case of Amazon, Coca Cola). Job losses induced by tariff led problems have started.

Trump has not been able to stop Israel-Hamas war, nor Russia-Ukraine war, which he had claimed he can stop in 24 hours!

He has made enemies out of friends ( like Canada, Europe, Mexico ) and has alienated all the others. He has not realized yet that this tariff war is unwinnable and US is going to get battered along with other countries on which it is heaping misery.

Hence, the road ahead is going to be rocky. It is extremely difficult to predict anything with a US president who does major U turns between lunch and dinner!

India ahead -

India would be less affected in all this as the global export component is about 22%. Ours is largely an internally focused economy and hence the damage should be contained. India is expected to grow at 6.5% levels in the next couple of years, which is not great news by itself, but good enough in the current situation.

India has now become the fourth largest economy by GDP and is on its way to be the third largest by 2027.

While the turbulence and the wars can upset a lot of things, India seems to be on a good wicket. The government is giving a push to manufacturing and is giving PLI incentives to set up factories in 14 different categories like Mobile & Electronics, API & Drug intermediaries, Auto & Auto components, Textiles, Food products, Medical devices etc.

Also, the government is giving a huge push to defence manufacturing, which has caught on quite well. Global capability centres (GCC) are being established and India is already a leader here employing about 1.9 million people, with lots of potential ahead.

India is also catching some of companies moving their supply chains away from China. Apple is a prime example of that. India is also giving focus to Ship building, which today is at the ideation stage. If Indian flagged vessels sail the seas, we can save a good portion of about USD 75 billion that goes out as payment for freight. India is working on Green energy as well as conventional energy areas which have good potential. Lastly India currently enjoys favourable demographics which is expected to be around for the next 20-25 years atleast.

Lots of blessing to count overall, lots going in our favour? there is a lot to be optimistic. But the churn which we see today, be it AI, geopolitical events, other blackswan events and the general accelerating pace of change leaves one unsure and breathless.

But, if we play well, the challenges that are thrown in the years to come can be turned around into opportunities, with some doing from our side. Hopefully we are the anti-fragile ones who can emerge stronger after any stressor. At the least, let us hope we are resilient.

Much depends on how we play our cards going forward. Time will tell.