Where is the world going?

This is a question that people ask, stunned by the happenings, exasperated by the events, or are plainly clueless about the mayhem the world finds itself in.

We are at that point in time when no one is sure where the world is going. The very foundations are shaky now - diplomacy no longer works, trading norms are consigned to the dustbin, rules-based international order is broken, multilateral institutions are not functioning well anymore...

Wars continue in spite of Trump's bluster that he has stopped seven ( or is it eight ?) wars. It does not matter how many, when the number is just a figment of imagination of a hallucinating narcissist.

Dedollarisation is still in its initial stages. Trade wars are slowly catching up and drawing blood. Meanwhile US President claims to have made various countries pay trillions of dollars! His hyperbole does not ring true to even his MAGA crowd, for they are hurting now with all the blocked corn, soybeans, and other agri commodities. The prices have gone up and are hurting.

But Trump persists with his loony ideas. There are three more years to get through with him. But what will happen to the US, with him at the helm?

History repeats itself, they say. Today, the trendiest thing to say is that history rhymes, not necessarily follows the same trajectory.

Whether it is repeating or rhyming, the path that the empires have taken seems to be similar. There are seven stages that the empires go through till collapse: dominance, overextension, deficit spending, currency debasement, inflation, loss of confidence, and collapse.

Rome followed it over two centuries. Spain followed it and defaulted four times in forty years. Britain followed it and lost a quarter of the Earth's surface in three decades. And the United States has now completed five stages and is entering the sixth. So is it going to be different this time? Time will tell.

Watch this youtube.com/watch?si=IOWytMC_vsRzG7LU&v=ks8YCtUd26s&feature=youtu.be

The world is undergoing a quantum change. The earlier maxim of studying well, getting into a good college, and landing a dream job is broken. There are no guarantees anymore.

There are too many people chasing too few jobs. AI is skewing the pitch, too, as it can do many things that humans can do. It also helps in recruitment for positions needing people skills by sifting through job applications in employers' firms, making it difficult for even qualified people to make it before an interview board, if their resume does not have the keywords that AI is looking for!

In many places, they are asking for experience while hiring, which is confounding, as one needs to get hired to get experience! There is more...

Read on https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmaGMNYWTcY

Meanwhile, the Indian economy is doing well. The festive sales are over Rs.6 Lakh Crores, which is 25% more than last year. Auto, consumer goods, electronics, jewellery, FMCG etc., have been the drivers this time. The Indian economy is expected to grow in real terms by 6.6 - 6.8%. That does not look like much. But the world economy is expected to grow by 3% and advanced economies by between 0 - 2%

There are several worrying features, however. For one, Trumps never-ending sanctions and tariffs are now all but shutting out Russian Crude from the markets. This can make oil pricier. These are challenging times. There is chaos in countries in and around India that is being fomented systematically, per security & geopolitical experts. This is now new.

We have come thus far wading through the chaos. We have come a long way. We will prevail and become the third-largest economy in a couple of years. And have a long march ahead!