Is Covid the change it is made out to be?

2020 will go down as a year in history that disrupted the way we lived and worked.

It is believed that this pandemic would change everything as we know it. That would be an exaggeration. When we are in the eye of the storm, it is gut wrenching. But when it subsides there is a lot of damage that would need mending; but life does come back to normalcy, in due course.

This Covid pandemic is slowly ebbing; but will life come back to normal, given time? Or are there going to be major changes that will reshape the world we live in?

The reality will probably be somewhere in-between.

Changes were underway for some time now. It has accelerated in the past two decades. The way we work & where, the kind of work we do, have all been slowly changing.

Many tend to think that the work from home is going to be the main change, after the pandemic. When the situation normalizes and the dust settles, people will be back in office.

Work from home will increase when compared to the past. In some sectors it may be 5-10% of the workforce and in some others, it can be higher like 20%. But it will be nowhere close to what some people are predicting – like 50% or more. There will be outliers ( like tech cos or service firms ) of course.

The disruptive changes will be due to the advances in tech & telecom.

Changes on work front –That has brought in the possibility of outsourcing & the ability to work from anywhere. Due to this, employers can recruit specialists & talented people from anywhere in the world.

The need to make them move to another country, visa problems, higher remuneration and costs will be obviated. This will work well for businesses. The bigger businesses will recruit globally, get access to high quality talent without costs of relocations, visa problems, etc. & also be able to pay local salaries.

This is the next level of efficiency that businesses will achieve that will increase their profitability.

The ability to outsource work globally will also migrate lot of regular work from within the company to consultants who would work on an assignment basis or tenure basis. The Gig worker count will explode, and full-time, permanent jobs will start plateauing or declining. That may not be a good thing. But that is what is most likely to happen.

Migration patterns may change in future. While some may want to continue going to the US, Canada or other such countries, there could be others who would like to migrate to places where the quality of life is very good, cost of living & taxes are moderate, climate and other factors are favourable. Places like Cyprus, Hungary, Malta, Grenada, St. Lucia etc. will probably be great choices on these parameters.

The most disruptive force of all is tech – AI & Machine learning will capture a whole lot of work that today needs two hands. The work available will be higher skilled jobs requiring specialized qualifications and niche/ high-end skills. High end tech jobs will soar.

The number of people who cannot find jobs will increase. That is why many governments are toying with the idea of paying their citizens a certain dole called Universal Basic Income every month. Utopian for now – may have to be implemented in some form in future.

There are going to be other jobs that will spring up on a massive scale. Geriatric care & healthcare will create tens of millions of jobs in the future. Travel, Tourism, assisted living, entertainment, leisure activities etc. are sectors that will expand and create jobs on a massive scale.

Education – The education system as we know now is set for a thorough overhaul.

Students need not go to classrooms to learn. Top-notch faculty and high-quality lectures on every topic, will now be available anytime on demand, online.

In fact, the system of cramming one’s brain with information will give way to application oriented learning. Exams in most cases will be open book and can be taken from one’s home itself. Travelling to study abroad will no longer be necessary. Degrees from any college in the world will now be a possibility at a fraction of the cost.

In fact, recruiters in future may not even insist on a formal degree or qualification. What they will look for is skill & competence.

Income inequality – The inequality will increase across the board. It will become more of a “winner take all” kind of a situation everywhere. In every category, there will be a behemoth which straddles like a colossus. Their market leverage & network effect will be so huge that all others will be also rans. Examples today are – Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple etc.

It is the highly skilled who will really do well. They will earn astronomically high incomes based on their unique skill sets and talents. Inequality in earnings will spike. Most will earn average or low incomes.

Self-employed – This category of people will zoom across the world in future. As mentioned before, most will be on project-based work, not on regular employment. The way they save, spend, consume etc. will change dramatically. These people will deliver the next level of productivity gains for businesses they are associated with.

These people will feel more insecure due to the temporary contracts they work on. They may work most probably from a smaller city/ town to keep their costs low. They may most probably spend carefully, considering the uncertainty in their income in the future. They may reskill & reenter the work force in a different avatar, from time to time. They may also work much longer than the current superannuation age of 60 years.

There will also be new categories of self-employed people who will emerge like you-tubers, education coaches, SM presence coaches etc.

I have touched upon some of the major changes that can be expected in the coming years. However, most other things will remain as is for now and will gradually adjust to the new, evolving situation.

Major changes are expected in the future – it is inevitable. The velocity of change has increased too. Some of them can even be difficult. But as they will present themselves over time, we will mostly adjust to them quite well. This is the new tech age & we need to prepare ourselves to embrace it.

Covid has brought it into our consciousness & we should be thankful to it, in that sense.